The Secretary General of the Higher Population Council Abla Amawi has affirmed that Jordan has witnessed since the mid twentieth century fundamental changes in all aspects of society, and especially in demographic aspects which were most vulnerable to quick changes in population growth (births, deaths and net emigration). This led to the transition of the population in Jordan from high to low levels of childbearing, which formed an indication to Jordan entering the stage of demographic transition and what implications this has on demographic opportunity which is characterized with a significant reduction in the percentage of young people and a big increase in the percentage of people of productive ages. The decrease in the percentage of children under the age of 15 and the increase in the percentage of people with manpower age (ages 15-64) is one of the most important features of this change. The percentage of those under the age of 15 has decreased from 50% in 1979 to 34.6% in 2015 according to the general population census. Estimations also indicate that the percentage has reached 34.3% in 2020 with a population of around 3.7 million, and the percentage of children is considered to be big which means an expected increase in the population number.
Amawi also indicated that childbearing had the biggest role in population change in Jordan due to the constant decrease the total birth rate has witnessed during the time period (2018-1976). The rate decreased from (7.4) child per woman in 1976, to (5.6) in 1990, to (4.4) in 1997, to (3.7) in 2002, to (3.6) in 2007, to (3.5) in 2012 and finally to (2.7) in 2018. This data indicates that the total birth rate lost (40.5%) of its value between the years (1976 and 1997), (53%) between the years (1976 and 2012) and (63.5%) between the years (1976 and 2017/2018).
She also drew that the tangible decline in the total birth rate in Jordan through time goes back to a number of reasons, most importantly the increase in the educational level of females. The percentage of women between the ages of (15-64) who hold a high school degree or more increased more than 54% in 1990 to 75.6% in 1997, and to 88.7% in 2007 and to 90.1% in 2009 and 2012, then to 90.8% in 2017/2018. She indicated one of the reasons to this is the increase in their ages in the time of their first marriage. The average of age during the first marriage in women between the ages of (24-49) increased from 19.6 years old in 1990 to 21.5 years old in 1997, to 21.8 years old in 2002, to 22.2 years old in 2007, to 22.4 years old between the years of 2009 and 2012, and finally to 22.7 years old in 2017. This is a difference of 3.1 years old when comparing the year 1990 to 2017. The average age of females on their first marriages also increased during the past ten years from 25.8 years old in 2011 to 26.6 years old in 2019. The average also increased for males from 29.7 years old in 2011 to 31 years old in 2019. This has contributed in the decrease in the percentage of married women between the ages of (15-49) who are prone to pregnancy and births. The percentage of the women in the age group (15-49) years old who were previously married decreased (5.5) percentage points between the years 1976 and 2018, from (65.7%) in 1976 to (60.2%) in 2017. The biggest decrease was in the percentage of those previously married in the (20-24) age group, as the percentage went from (64%) in 1976 to (35.2%) in 2017. It also decreased in the (25-29) age group, as it went from (87.4%) in 1976 to (68.1%) in 2017. The reason to this decrease was attributed to a number of social and economic factors, most importantly the increase in marriage and living expenses as well as the requirements of starting a family which includes accommodation. This is also compared to the economic situation and the increase in unemployment rates among young people, as well as the leaning towards continuation of education for longer years and especially among females.
She also added that one of the reasons that contributed to the tangible decline in the total birth rate in Jordan through time is the increase in the use of family planning methods. The percentage of currently married women who use family planning methods increased from (35%) in 1990 to (53%) in 1997 to (56%) in 2002 to (57%) in 2007 to (59%) in 2009 to (61%) in 2012, and then decreased to (52%) in 2017.
The study of births based on the Kingdom’s Population and Family Health Survey 2012 indicates that women of childbearing age not getting married has contributed to more than a third of the decrease in fertility rates in 2012. The use of family planning methods contributed in the other third of the decrease in fertility rates. This is considered an indicator on the role of these factors in affecting births in Jordan.
Amawi explained that the decline in birth rates does not necessarily mean a sharp decline in the number of annual births. This is attributed to the fact that the population base, especially the number of Jordanian girls and women of childbearing ages (15-49) who reside in the Kingdom, has become big and constitute the driving force of births in the future. Their number has reached according to the 2015 general population census (1.7) million females, and according to the low scenario of the (2015-2050) Population Projections the number will increase to (1.9) million in 2020, then to (2.2) million in 2030 and (2.5) million in 2050. The number of Jordanian births will decrease according to the (2015-2050) Population Projections and the low scenario from (175224) births in 2015 to (171353) births in 2020, to (164216) births in 2024, to (147120) births in 2030, to (160467) births in 2040, to finally (161484) births in 2050.
According to data from the Civil Status and Passport Department on the number of births and which was updated 2/9/2021, the number of Jordanian newborns in the last 12 years has tended to oscillate between increasing and decline. It declined from (190419) births in 2010 to (175492) births in 2013. It then increased to reach (192802) births in 2017, then declined again for three consecutive years 2018, 2019 and 2020 as it declined to (164158) in 2020. The level of the number of births in 2020 forms the expected level of the number of Jordanian newborns in 2024 according to the Population Projections, with an advance of four years in the number of births compared to the Population Projections.
Amawi also added that the delay in the age of marriage plays a big role in this decline, as the percentage of women who were previously married in the (20-24) age group tended to decrease during the period (2010-2020). It decreased from 33.2% in 2010 to 28.4% in 2015, to 26.6% in 2017 and 23.1% in 2018 to 22.7% in 2019. It reached around 20.1% in the second and third quarters of the year 2020 and with a difference of (13) percentage points with the year 2010. The percentage of women who were previously married in the (25-29) age group also tended to decrease during the period (2010-2020). It decreased from (78% - 79.8%) between the years (2010-2014), to 75% in 2016, to 64.8% in 2017, to 62.2% in 2018, to 60.6% in 2019, to 56.6% in the second and third quarters in 2020, with a difference of (23.2) percentage points compared to (2010-2014).
She also showed that the orientation of the number of foreign births in Jordan has recorded an upwards trend during the period (2010-2017) and reached its peak in 2017. The number of births increased from (13018) births in 2010 to (34314) births in 2017 driven by the presence of Syrians in Jordan and their tendency towards marriages generally and early marriages specifically. It then decreased for three consecutive years, as it decreased to (32692) in 2018, (30076) in 2019 and to (25845) in 2020, with an annual decline rate of 8.9%. She explained that the decline in foreign birth rates could be attributed to national efforts in the area of awareness, especially in the area of limiting early marriage. This is in addition to other factors related to the delay in the age of marriage, as the percentage of women previously married in the age group (15-19) decreased from 18.8% in 2017 to 15% in 2019. The percentage of women previously married in the age group (20-24) decreased from 56% in 2017 to 55.5% in 2019, and the percentage in the age group (25-29) decreased from 76.6% in 2017 to 74.1% in 2019.
The Secretary General of the Higher Population Council indicated that in the attempt to detect the effect of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on the number of births in Jordan and according to data from the Civil Status and Passport Department on the number of births according to months in 2020 and which was updated on 2/9/2021, and comparing it to its corresponding number of births according to year in 2019, the number of Jordanian newborns tended towards declining along 12 months in 2020 compared to 2019. However, the sharp decline in the number of births in October and which records the births of pregnancies in March 2020 (the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic lockdown in Jordan) was higher than the rest of the months. It dropped from (14506) births in October 2019 to (12946) births in October 2020 with a decline percentage of 10.8%, and which is opposite to what is expected, as the number of births was expected to rise this month due to the lockdown that started on 21 March 2020.
She also added that the tendency in the number of foreign births in 2020 according to months and compared to the number of births in 2019 according to months was no inconsistent with the tendency in the number of Jordanian births according to month in 2019 and 2020. The number of foreign births in 2020 recorded a decrease along 12 months, and it also recorded a decrease in the number of births in October 2020 compared to the number of births in the same month of 2019. The number of foreign births in October 2019 reached (2371) births, while it reached (2131) births in October 2020, recording a decline of 10.1% which is also inconsistent with what was expected.
Amawi also indicated that it was expected for the number of births to increase during quarantine and the period of economic shutdown caused by the spread of the coronavirus in Jordan, due to the insufficient access to reproductive health services, especially family planning methods, during complete lockdown. However, the opposite occurred and the number of births continued to decline. It can be stated that the coronavirus pandemic was not a reason in an increase of the number of births in Jordan, and it was not the only reason for the decline in the number of births in October 2020. The pandemic could be an additional reason for the decrease in the number of births in October 2020, inferring from the indications that showed a noticeable decrease in the number of births over past years and even before the spread of the coronavirus. The implications of the pandemic and what it consequences it had such as the poor economic situation and the increase in unemployment rates could have led to families deeply rethinking the consequences of a newborn under the pandemic and its implications.
These findings agree with a number of universal studies and reports on the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on the decrease in the number of births; a study carried out by Italian researchers who analyzed data from Italy, France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. The study showed that many people abandoned their plans of having children during severe lockdown measures carried out in March and April of 2020. A report based on statistics from the Ministry of Public Security in China indicated that the number of newborns in China decreased by 15% in 2020 compared to 2019 with the appearance of the coronavirus and which disrupted the economy and affected the family formation plans. Another report which was reported by Brookings indicated that the number of births in the American states of California, Arizona, Hawaii and Ohio in 2020 decreased by more than 50000 births compared to the year 2019.
The Higher Population Council which is considered the national reference for population issues is closely following the demographic changes in Jordan. It is also assessing effects of population policies and programs on the population age structure and demographics, especially the policies and programs of family planning methods and which aim to achieve the demographic returnee resulting from the decline in the percentage of young people and the increase in the percentage of productive ages, as well as decreasing the number of dependency ratios. The council is also following the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on population dynamics, and does not consider the coronavirus pandemic a reason for an increase in the number of births, as well as not the only reason for the decline in the number of births in Jordan.
